Morning Note /
Turkey

Turkey: CBT meeting day

  • It is the Central Bank monetary policy rate decision meeting day and consensus is the policy rate will be held at 19%

  • Headline inflation could near 18% by May, hence we do not expect any move from the CBT in the meetings

  • Lira is behaving well ahead of the CBT meeting and banks could try to push their move a little further

ATA Invest
15 April 2021
Published byATA Invest

It is the Central Bank monetary policy rate decision meeting day and the consensus is that the policy rate will be held at 19%. Inflation expectations have considerably worsened after the change of the CBT governor last month and annual inflation has climbed to 16.2% as of March. Headline inflation could near 18% by May, hence we do not expect any move from the CBT in the meetings until fall as we see inflation head south of 15%.

The statement accompanying the rate decision will equally be important and we expect a word-for-ford replica of last month’s statement, saying tight stance till a visible decline in inflation and re-iterating the upside risks in inflation.

Lira is behaving well ahead of the CBT meeting and banks could try to push their move a little further but just staying put will not justify any significant move upward.

Macro news:

CBRT policy rate decision (ATA 19%, consensus 19%) today at 14:00 local time

Company news:

*FROTO: announced production halt in Gölcük plant between 19 April 2021 and 13 June 2021. <Negative> Ford Otosan announced that due to earthquake and fire in Japan the semiconductor shortage has been compounded. The Company decided to bring forward their annual planned summer shutdown and suspend production in Gölcük plant from 19 April 2021 to 13 June 2021. During this period, maintenance works and rearranging production lines in preparation for new investments will continue. Production will continue in Yeniköy and Eskişehir plants. The Company expects to increase production pace in the following months after June. The Company expects to remain within its sales and production guidance for 2021E.

*ARENA: will distribute divided 0.505131/share today and the reference price will be TL 52.095

*KRDMD: Yolbulan Nakliyat sold 1.2 mn shares within TL 7.40-7,45 band and their stake declined to 1.05%.

Weekly Agenda:

April 15: CBRT policy rate decision (ATA 19%, consensus 19%)