Morning Note /
Global

Turkey: CBRT to keep policy rate at 14%

  • After a very strong start and a testing of the resistance at 2500, a sharp intraday correction followed by a rebound

  • We had a strong rally since the beginning of the first week of the Ukranian-Russia War actually

  • Inflation will be the main driver of all profit growth we will see in 1Q

Batuhan Ozsahin
ATA Invest
14 April 2022
Published by

After a very strong start and a testing of the resistance at 2500, a sharp intraday correction followed by a rebound. We had a strong rally since the beginning of the first week of the Ukranian-Russia War actually and it gained pace in the past 2 weeks as strong earnings momentum for 1Q despite all the macro uncertainty.

Inflation will be the main driver of all profit growth we will see in 1Q. For banks, it is the CPI-linker income, for retailers, the 61% y/y increase in headline inflation, some translational gains for exporters as lira continued to weaken and also some stock gains for most sectors. We could see side-way range-bound trading until the first results are announced next week.

EKGYO, the biggest disappointment for all investors since its IPO has announced very strong 1Q sales numbers, as high as it did in all of 2021. We could see strong activity in the stock as well as other REITS, as deep real interest rates have pushed locals to real estate to protect themselves.

Company news:

*ARCLK TI> bought back 330K shares at an average price of TL63.75 on 13 April 2022. Since 02 July 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 59.4mn at an average price of TL41.25.

*SAHOL TI> bought back 1,000K shares at an average price of TL21.41 on 13 Apr 2022. Since 09 Nov 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 38.6mn at an average price of TL15.32

Weekly Agenda:

14 April: CBRT MPC policy rate decision (Consensus 14%- No Change)