Morning Note /
Turkey

Turkey: All eyes on the central bank decision

  • BIST 100 faced another volatile day yesterday

  • Earnings season started and ASELS announced 3Q financials yesterday

  • Today we expect BIST 100 to open in green again towards 3,900 level

Zeynep Erman
Zeynep Erman

Equity Research Analyst

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ATA Invest
20 October 2022
Published byATA Invest

BIST 100 faced another volatile day yesterday, failed to break 4,000 resistance yet closed slightly above Tuesday closing. Today eyes will be on CBT rate decision at 14:00 local time. Following the guidance from the government on single digit interest rates consensus expects rates to come down to single digit levels before year end and today a 100 bp rate cut. Earnings season started and ASELS announced 3Q financials yesterday. Today we expect BIST 100 to open in green again towards 3,900 level and the daily support lies at 3,850. Any weakness in the market should be a buying opportunity for short term trading.

Company news:

  • ASELS TI> 3Q22 Results: Higher than expected net income

    Aselsan reported TL1,956mn net income in 3Q22, 10% higher than our estimate of TL1,785mn and 35% higher than consensus estimate of TL1,445mn. Despite higher than expected financial expense and lower than expected net other income, significantly higher than expected EBIT and tax income led to higher than expected net income in 3Q22. The company posted TL1,402mn EBITDA in 3Q22, higher than our estimate of TL1,077mn and consensus estimate of TL1,038mn. The company reported 20.4% EBITDA margin in 3Q22, 29bps higher than our estimate of 20.1% (Ras. Cons:20.7%).

    The company’s net sales increased by 108% to TL6.9bn (-1% in US$ basis), 28% higher than our estimate of TL5.4bn in 3Q22. In 9M22, the company’s net sales increased by 72% y/y (-13% in US$ basis). Aselsan’s backlog declined by 4% q/q to US$7.6bn. The company added US$435mn new project into the its backlog in 3Q22.

    According to the company presentation, TL-denominated backlog constituted 17% of total backlog whereas Euro and US$ denominated backlog constituted 36% and 47% of total backlog, respectively as of 3Q22. The company maintained its guidance for 2022. The company management maintained (1) its topline growth guidance at “>25%” which was inline with our expectation of 35% y/y growth (2) its EBITDA margin guidance at “>22%” inline with our estimate of 24.4% and (3) its CAPEX guidance at TL5bn for 2022 (ATA Est.:TL5bn). The company’s net debt increased to TL7.6bn in 3Q22 from TL6.2bn in 2Q22. The company’s adjusted net working capital needs (ST+LT NWC inc. prepaid expenses and deferred income) increased by TL2.2bn q/q to TL30,921mn in 3Q22.

  • MPARK TI> bought back 143K shares at an average price of TL62.11 on 19 October 2022. Since 25 May 2022, the total number of shares bought back reached 4.9mn at an average price of TL42.72.

Weekly Agenda:

Oct, 20: CBT rate decision

Oct, 20: BRSA weekly Banking sector data

Oct, 21: Oct Consumer confidence Index

Oct, 21: ARCLK 3Q22