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Turkey: All eyes are on US CPI data

  • Annual headline inflation in the US is expected to hit 4.7%, up from 4.2% in April
  • UST10s are rallying since last week and are down to 1.47% from a high of 1.63% last week
  • Please recall TAVHL TI is our TOP PICK in the aviation sector

All eyes are on US CPI data, as annual headline inflation is expected to hit 4.7% up from 4.2% in April. UST10s are rallying since last week and are down to 1.47% from a high of 1.63% last week. All future pricing (forward breakevens) are indicating that the markets are really viewing the current inflation phenomenon as transitory.

When looked in a historical perspective, average US inflation is up to above 3.5% in 2021 from only 1.4% in 2020 and normally risk assets would have been very negatively affected, but abundant liquidity in the markets is still supporting risk-taking.

If US CPI data surprises on the upside we might see a correction in the short run, if not positive trading in the banks and opening up themes (airlines, travel, leisure) should continue Please recall TAVHL TI is our TOP PICK in the aviation sector.

Company news:

MAVI: posted TL31mn net income in 1Q21 (1Q20: -TL50mn). The company’s net sales increased by 96% y/y to TL759mn in 1Q21. On a segmental basis retail sales increased by 93% y/y to TL380mn, E-com sales increased by 18% y/y to TL 110mn and wholesale sales increased by 77% y/y to TL269mn in 1Q21. The company’s EBITDA margin increased by 1,340bps to 18.4% in 1Q21. The company’s net debt increased by 11% q/q to TL 571mn in 1Q21. The company’s net debt / EBITDA ratio declined to 1.1x in 1Q21 from 1.3x in 4Q20.

ENKA: CEO Agah Mehmet Kara bought 208K ENKA shares in price range TL9.03-9.05 His stake raised to%0.25

BASGZ: Baskent Doğalgaz Dagitim will start trading in BIST on June, 11th (IPO size: TL1,701mn, ref price: TL9.72)

Weekly Agenda:

June, 10: April Foreign Trade Indices

June, 10: April Unemployment Rate

June, 11: April Industrial Production Index

June, 11: June CBT Survey of Expectations


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