Equity Analysis /
Turkey

Turkey air travel: Total PAX increased to 15.7mn in Oct, 81% of the 2019 level

  • Domestic PAX in Turkey increased to 7.1mn in October which is 84% of its 2019 level

  • International PAX increased to 8.6mn in October which is 79% of its 2019 level

  • We think the stellar performance in Int'l PAX in Oct is mainly due to addition of UK to quarantine free travel to Turkey

Aytunc Uz
Aytunc Uz

Equity Research Analyst

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ATA Invest
9 November 2021
Published byATA Invest

Domestic PAX in Turkey increased to 7.1mn in October which is 84% of its 2019 level. Considering domestic PAX in Turkey was 7.4mn in September which was 86% of its 2019 level, there is a m/m decrease in the domestic PAX trend. International PAX increased to 8.6mn in October which is 79% of its 2019 level. Considering international PAX in Turkey was 8.3mn in September which was 68% of its 2019 level, there is a m/m improvement in the international PAX trend in Turkey. We believe stellar performance in international PAX in October is mainly due to the addition of the UK to quarantine-free travel to Turkey.

Istanbul Airport’s, main hub of Turkish Airlines, total PAX increased by 126% y/y to 4.4mn in October. Considering 126% y/y increase in total PAX vs. 100% y/y increase in ATM per day in the same period, THYAO’s load factor is likely to increase y/y in October.

Total PAX in Sabiha Gokcen, main hub of Pegasus, increased by 45% y/y to 2.8mn in October which is 88% of its 2019 level. Domestic PAX increased by 18% y/y to 1.7mn which is 91% of its 2019 level whereas, international PAX was up by 122% y/y to 1.1mn in October which is 84% of its 2019 level. Considering domestic PAX was 1.7mn and international PAX was 1.0mn in September which were 93% and 75% of their 2019 levels respectively, there is a m/m improvement in the total PAX trend in Sabiha Gokcen. Also, considering 45% y/y more passenger vs. 39% y/y more ATM per day in the same period, PGSUS’ load factor is likely to increase y/y in October.

TAV Holding’s total PAX increased by 117% y/y to 7.2mn which is 85% of its 2019 level in October. Domestic PAX increased by 79% y/y in October to 2.5mn which is 89% of its 2019 level. Considering domestic PAX was 2.6mn in September which was 89% of its 2019 level, domestic PAX trend in October was flat. International PAX increased by 146% y/y to 4.7mn in October which is 83% of its 2019 level. Considering international PAX was 4.8mn in May which was 67% of its 2019 level, there is m/m improvement in international PAX trend.