Morning Note /
Global

Turkey: 2,520 and 2,500 are the daily support levels for today

  • We start the day with price increases in natural gas and electricity (15% for households 25% for industries)

  • We expect 90 bp effect on June inflation, lifting annual inflation to 84.6%

  • Inflation will keep rising and 93-94% levels are likely in September-October 2022

Batuhan Ozsahin
ATA Invest
1 June 2022
Published by

We start the day with price increases in natural gas (30% for households, 16% for electricity generation and 10% for industries) and electricity (15% for households 25% for industries). We expect a 90 bp effect on June inflation, lift the annual inflation rate to 84.6%. Inflation will keep rising and 93-94% levels are likely in September-October 2022.

Global markets are in the red and together with price hikes in NG and electricity BIST-100 is likely to face a sluggish opening. 2,562 is the historical high for BIST-100 and should be broken up for further buying in the market. 2,520 and 2,500 are the daily support levels for today.

Macro news:

Foreign trade deficit increased by 98.5% y/y to US$6.11bn (-25.3% m/m) in Apr’22.

  • Proportion of imports covered by exports declined by 663bps to 79.3% in Apr’22.

  • Net gold imports realized as US$0.4bn in Apr’22 (Apr’21: -US$14mn). Gold trade excluded proportion of imports covered by exports declined by 523bps y/y to 80.4% in Apr’22.

  • Germany got the first spot in the major export destinations with US$2.00bn (21% y/y) in Apr’22.

  • Exports to USA (stands as the second major export destination) increased by 50% y/y to US$1.78bn in Apr’22.

  • Russia got the first spot in the major import destinations. Imports from Russia increased by 150% to US$5.47bn in Apr’22.

  • Imports from China (stands as the second major import destination) increased by 37% y/y to US$3.29bn in Apr’22.

Company news:

*SISE TI > BOTAS increased natural gas prices by 10% for industrials, effective as of Jun’22. BOTAS also increased natural gas prices by 30% for households and 16% for electricity generations. Please note that, Turkey natural gas costs comprise 17% of total COGS for SISE in 1Q22. Based on our rough calculations, if there is no price increase 10% increase in natural gas prices decreases SISE’s EBITDA margin around 100bps on annual basis.

* MPARK TI> bought back 90K shares at an average price of TL36.45 on 30 May 2022. Since 25 May 2022, the total number of shares bought back reached 240K at an average price of TL35.26.

*ASUZU TI> goes ex-dividend today, paying TL0.3571428/shr The reference price will be TL 105,943

*AYES TI> goes ex-dividend today, paying TL0.20002/shr The reference price will be TL 20.66

Weekly Agenda:

June 2: BRSA Weekly banking Sector Data

June 3: May CPI (Consensus 3.85%, ATA 5.4%)