Tired of all the inflation, stagflation, inversion conversations? Here is something new.
We introduce Conflict Speed which describes the speed at which a country, like Russia, can be neatly excised from the global economy. Like our prior Speed examples: Covid, Climate, Analytical Speed; Conflict Speed is both simple & profound.
From crisis comes opportunity. We believe that the 3Cs: Covid, Climate & Conflict are turbocharging the emergence of our Tri Polar World thesis, a world where regional integration in Asia, Europe & The Americas is the ordering principle.
Globalization peaked with the GFC; nationalism doesn’t work in the 21st Century – note UK living standards are declining at their fastest pace in over 60 years while Russian GDP is expected to shrink back to 2007 levels in one year.
Companies are shifting to regional production platforms as global supply chains become unreliable in a 3C world. Tri Polar companies are starting to appear – Tesla is among the first, Taiwan Semiconductor is likely to follow as will EV battery companies.
Europe & The Americas have the most upside to the Tri Polar World. Europe because Conflict speed will accelerate its rate of change across energy, defense, climate & economic policies. The Americas because so little has been done to integrate southward – Conflict speed’s focus on energy and food security suggests this will change.