Tellimer

Turkish Airlines: Total PAX increased to 2.4mn in April 2021, from almost zero in April 2020

  • Domestic PAX and direct international PAX were up by 6644% and 1072% y/y respectively
  • international transfer PAX increased to 0.8mn from almost zero a year ago
  •  Available seat km (ASK) increased by 3483% y/y in Apr 2021 to 8.1bn

In April 2021, domestic PAX and direct international PAX were up by 6644% and 1072% y/y respectively whereas international transfer PAX increased to 0.8mn from almost zero a year ago.

Available seat km (ASK) increased by 3483% y/y in Apr 2021 to 8.1bn from 0.2mn a year ago.

Total load factor was up by 464bps y/y to 58.7% in Apr 2021 due to 717bps and 375bps y/y increase in domestic and international load factor, respectively. Although load factor in Apr 2021 is 58.7%, when we adjust this KPI for aircrafts on the ground by dividing revenue passenger km (RPK) in Apr 2021 to ASK of Apr 2019, we find a load factor of %32.8. There is a m/m decrease in load factors and we believe there is no sign of recovery in terms of profitability of Turkish Airlines yet.

Turkish Airlines stopped providing guidance due to Covid-19 at 1Q20, and no guidance was shared with 1Q21 results about 2021E.

Currently we expect 2021E ASK to be 127.0bn compared to 75bn in 2020 and 2021E load factor to be %70 compared to %71 in 2020.  We also expect total PAX to increase to 44mn in 2021E from 28mn in 2020. Recall that total PAX of 28mn in 2020 was 62.4% below  total PAX of 74.2mn back in 2019. We believe it might take several years to catch 2019 pax figures depending on the pace of easing in Covid-19 restrictions. We might receive more signals starting by this spring regarding the travel trends.


Most Viewed See latest
Disclosures

This publication is being distributed by Tellimer solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not con...

Full Tellimer disclaimers