Equity Analysis /
Turkey

Pegasus: Total PAX down 4% y/y in March 2021

  • Domestic PAX was up by 7% y/y in Mar 2021 whereas international PAX declined by 22% y/y during the same period

  • International share in total ASK was down to 52% in Mar 2021

  • Total load factor (LF) was down 274bps y/y to 77.5% in Mar 2021.

Aytunc Uz
Aytunc Uz

Equity Research Analyst

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ATA Invest
14 April 2021
Published byATA Invest

On a segmental basis, domestic PAX was up by 7% y/y in Mar 2021 whereas international PAX declined by 22% y/y during the same period.

International share in total ASK was down to 52% in Mar 2021 from 57% a year ago.

Total load factor (LF) was down 274bps y/y to 77.5% in Mar 2021 due to 160bps and 500bps decline in domestic and international load factor, respectively. Although load factor in Mar 2021 is 77.5%, when we adjust this KPI for aircrafts on the ground by dividing PAX in Mar 2021 to seats of Mar 2019, we find a load factor of 47.1%. Although m/m there is an improvement in load factors in Mar 2021, we believe there is no sign of recovery in terms of the profitability of Pegasus.

Currently, we expect 2021E ASK to be 31.6bn compared to 22,3bn in 2020 and 2021E load factor to be %76.1 compared to %80.2 in 2020. We also expect total PAX to increase to 19.2mn in 2021E from 14.7mn in 2020. Recall that total PAX of 14.7mn in 2020 was 52.2% below total PAX of 30.8mn back in 2019. We believe it might take several years to catch 2019 PAX figures depending on the pace of easing in Covid-19 restrictions. We might receive more clear signals starting by this spring regarding the travel trends.