We expect BAM to post a 2Q22 profit that is flattish YoY but up spectacularly QoQ, driven by accelerated cash collection (both NPLs and NPA sales) and debt-restructuring. Our 2022 NPAT estimate is Bt3.1bn, up 20.9% YoY. BAM’s stock price is down 21% YTD, so now implies a cheap YE22 PBV of 1.2x (1.5SD below its long-term mean) and a 2022 PER of 17.3x (0.8SD below its long-term mean). BUY!
2Q22 earnings should be flattish YoY but up 157.3% QoQ
Our model points to 2Q22 NPAT of Bt802m, up by 2% YoY and 157% QoQ, supported by non-NII (heavier NPA sales), accelerated debt-restructuring, more assertive cash collection (even though we assume that NPL cash collection will fall 3-5% short of BAM’s target of Bt2.6bn; NPA cash collection should make its target of Bt1.5bn). Furthermore, we assume that the firm continued offering promotional prices for debtors aimed at accelerating settlement of NPLs.