Our BUY call stands. We expect strong loan growth and a lower cost/income ratio to make for a 2022 profit of Bt6.1bn, up 24% YoY (despite a slightly slimmer NIM, lower non-NII, and heavier LLPs). MTC’s stock price is down 11% since YE21, so now implies a cheap YE22 PBV of 3.6x (2.0 SDs below its long-term mean) and a 2022 PER of 17.9x.
Swift ongoing loan growth, led by sales-point expansion
Following impressive lending expansion of 29% last year (4Q21 lending rose 8.1% QoQ), we expect MTC to build its loan portfolio further in 1Q22, supported by aggressive sales-point expansion. Furthermore, we anticipate that the HP-for-new motorbikes business will mark substantial QoQ growth for the quarter, as the supply of new motorbikes available for sale has increased substantially (following shortages, 2Q-4Q21).