We think the worst is now behind AAV. Once Beijing gives clear signs that it will allow China to reopen and lift its quarantine-on-re-entry requirement, AAV’s stock price will surge. Its bottom-line has bottomed out and we expect the ongoing pax recovery to be followed by a financial turnaround in 4Q22 or 2023. BUY!
Deep red ink
AAV reported a 2Q22 net loss of Bt4,724m, deeper into the red by 179% YoY and 99% QoQ. The net loss was 29% deeper than our estimate (lower pax and heavier extra losses tied to FX and derivatives than we had expected). Stripping out extra items, AAV’s core loss would be Bt2,292m, deeper into the red by 82% YoY and 1% QoQ. The core loss was 41% deeper than our estimate (a lower pax than assumed).