The US dollar dagger for emerging markets

  • USD is expensive but its continued appreciation is a major headwind for local currency assets in emerging markets

  • There's some protection in EMs where the REER is below the historical average and the real interest rate is positive

  • Brazil exhibits both. Others come close: eg China, India, Saudi in large EM; Colombia, Indonesia, Peru, UAE in small EM
September 10th, 2022
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