Equity Analysis /

Bangkok Expressway & Metro PCL: The only way is up!

  • Rock bottom in 3Q21

  • 2022—looking better than the pre-COVID era

  • Tenders to open for new mass-transit projects

Bualuang Securities
20 October 2021

BEM’s stock price should continue rallying (despite an expected net loss for 3Q21). The drivers are market anticipation of a fast recovery in 4Q21, an impressive 2022-23 outlook, and scope for earnings upside (new mass-transit projects and, perhaps, rider-ship-switching from BTS). BEM remains our top Transport pick.

Rock bottom in 3Q21

We expect a small net loss of Bt76m for 3Q21 (YoY and QoQ reversals from profits)—BEM’s nadir of CVOID-19 era—pushed into red ink by the hard lockdown during Bangkok’s COVID-19 blowout. That said, we don’t think the stock price will collapse, post-result announcement (even if the red ink proves deeper than our estimate), as its operation will recover fast, 4Q21 through 1H22, in tandem with the easing of the lockdown. As about half of Bangkok’s population has been fully vaccinated (and 70-80% of Bangkok’s residents should receive their second jabs by Dec 2021), we don’t expect the govt to impose a hard lockdown again (even if there’s a new outbreak).