Equity Analysis /

Thailand: Utilities-5.2GW in renewables—the journey’s start, not the destination

  • Big tranche of renewable capacity to open to tender

  • Partial-firm PPAs, a new type of PPA?

  • Timeline for the tenders

Bualuang Securities
17 November 2022

This report summarizes the details of 5.2GW in renewable capacity that the ERC is opening to tender. The winners are likely to be announced by Mar 2023. This story will drive the stock prices of renewable stocks through early 2023. GUNKUL is our top pick.

Big tranche of renewable capacity to open to tender

The ERC is opening tenders for 5.2GW in renewable capacity—0.3GW of biogas, 1.5GW of wind-turbine, 1.0GW of PV solar with energy storage systems [ESS], and 2.4GW of ground-mounted PV solar—tentatively scheduled to COD, 2024-30 (Figure 1). The announced tariffs are Bt2.07/kWh (20-year non-firm PPAs) for biogas, Bt3.10/kWh (25-year non-firm PPAs) for wind-turbine, Bt2.17/kWh (25-year non-firm PPAs) for ground-mounted solar farms, and Bt2.83/kWh (25-year partial-firm PPAs) for solar with ESS. The govt will grant rights of REC or carbon credits. We estimate the EIRR of those projects in the 10-14% range, offering scope for earnings upside in the range of Bt60-210m/100MWe (Figure 2).