Equity Analysis /
Thailand

Thailand: Transportation - Return of the dragon

  • Chinese tourists are coming back!

  • AAV to report black ink for 4Q22—its first since 1Q19

  • Strong ground traffic recovery …

Bualuang Securities
23 January 2023

Swift tourist arrival growth will outweigh the effect of sharply higher energy prices (the prices of both oil and electricity). The profits of our Transport stocks will continue recovering through 1Q23. AAV is our top pick on the China reopening theme.

Chinese tourists are coming back!

China’s reopening makes it much easier for Chinese tourists to return home after traveling abroad (the blanket quarantine-on-entry rule has been lifted). We expect 300k Chinese tourists to visit Thailand during 1Q23 and more than one million during 2Q23. The number is likely to build into 2H23, so total Chinese arrivals may reach 5m persons in 2023. And total foreign arrivals to Thailand could hit 25m persons this year (about 63% of pre-COVID number).