The Thai govt announced that it will lift its COVID-19 state of emergency on October 1 and normalize policy in order to promote tourism in 4Q22. The Ministry of Tourism & Sports reported 1.17m foreign arrivals in August, up 4% MoM (despite the fact that August is low season). We expect MoM growth to accelerate, Oct-Dec 2022 (high season), making for 10m visitors in 2022. Our top-three picks are AOT, AWC, and ERW.
Thailand to lift COVID-19 the state of emergency
Thailand will soon drop virtually all remaining COVID-related restrictions in order to encourage tourism. Effective May 1, the RT-PCR testing requirement for international arrivals was removed; arrivals jumped 78% MoM that month. In July, the Thailand Pass entry requirement and health insurance requirement were removed; arrivals surged to above 1m persons for the month. Last week, the Center for COVID-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) said that the last day of the COVID-19 state of emergency will be Sep 30, as the virus has been downgraded to a communicable disease under surveillance (from a dangerous communicable disease). We, thus, expect accelerated MoM foreign arrival growth, Oct-Dec 2022.