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Thailand

Thailand: Tourism - Arrivals down MoM in Jan-to-date

  • Foreign arrivals to Thailand fell MoM in Jan-to-date

  • Double-positive: foreign arrival growth and domestic stimulus

  • Chinese independent travelers first …tour groups soon after

Bualuang Securities
25 January 2023

Arrivals in the first two weeks of Jan 2023 were down about 16% MoM. But we aren’t worried, as Chinese tourists will start arriving en masse by March, enabled by much heavier Thai-China air flight traffic.

Foreign arrivals to Thailand fell MoM in Jan-to-date

Foreign arrivals to Thailand totaled 11.15m persons in 2022, equal to 28% of the 2019 number. Dec 2022 was the peak month of the year at 2.2m persons, equal to 57% of Dec 2019 arrivals. The Ministry of Tourism & Sports tentatively reported foreign arrivals in the first two weeks of Jan of 845k persons, an average daily rate (ADR) of 60k, significantly below the 72k-person ADR of Dec 2022, implying a 16% MoM fall. But arrival trends were mixed—sharp MoM declines for some key markets—India and Malaysia—juxtaposed against robust MoM growth among other key markets—Russia, South Korea, and Laos.