Equity Analysis /
Thailand

Thailand: Tourism - All systems are go!

  • Tourism bounces back

  • 2023 coverage earnings projected at 55% of the 2019 number

  • Our top picks remain AOT, AWC, and ERW

Bualuang Securities
30 November 2022

Turnarounds to black ink and easing financial stress put tourism-related stocks in the spotlight for 2023. We forecast coverage profits of Bt19bn for 2023 and Bt41bn for 2024, with growth supported by CAPEX. Our top picks are AOT, AWC, and ERW.

Tourism bounces back

Foreign arrivals to Thailand have accelerated since July 2022; we expect 10.5m persons for 2022 as a whole. Nov 1-20 arrivals equaled 50% of the Nov 1-20, 2019 pre-COVID era number. We assume 21.5m foreign arrivals during 2023. Non-Chinese inbound tourists in 2023 should hit 67% of the 2019 number (assumed 2H22 arrivals look set to equal about 55% of the 2H19 number). We also anticipate roughly 2m Chinese visitors in 2023 (against 10m persons in 2019), with a growth rate of about 10% MoM during 1H23, accelerating to around 30% MoM in 2H23, driven by “revenge travel” psychology (as was the case with arrivals from other origination markets during 2022).