Our checks with retailers point to fast SSSG for Aug. Although heavy rain slowed traffic to some stores in Aug compared to Jul, SSSG has mostly accelerated (due in part to a low Aug 2021 base comparison), led by recovering domestic consumption. We expect the SSSG recovery to run through Sept and Discretionary plays to outperform.
QTD SSSG solid, despite heavy rains and floods in August
Last week we asked the retailers under coverage to estimate SSS (CPALL, MAKRO, CRC, HMPRO, GLOBAL, and DOHOME). Our checks point to fast SSSG in Jul and Aug-to-date. While most retailers expect to mark stronger recoveries in traffic and sales for Jul compared to Jun 2022, many also noted that sales slowed MoM in Aug in some stores, due to localized heavy rain and flooding. Yet, with last year’s low base and the positive impact of reopening, all retailers anticipate SSS growth. Among retailers, Discretionary plays (CRC and HMPRO) are outperforming with estimated SSSG of more than 50% for CRC and 25% for HMPRO, QTD. Grocery retailers, such as CPALL and MAKRO, also estimate strong SSSG of 20-25% for CPALL and high single digits for MAKRO, QTD.