Strategy Note /

Thailand: Thai Market Strategy - Strong NPAT and even stronger core earnings

  • SET 3Q22 NPAT growth estimated at 26% YoY (down 35% QoQ)

  • Anticipate SET 4Q22 bottom-line expansion of 21% YoY

  • Street profit forecast upgrades continued in Oct-to-date

Poramet Tongbua
Poramet Tongbua

Equity Research Analyst

Bualuang Securities
17 October 2022

The release of pent-up demand following the easing of COVID-related restrictions supported YoY NPAT growth through 3Q22. Looking ahead, the ongoing normal-ization of domestic business and the inbound tourism recovery will drive 4Q22 earnings expansion.

SET 3Q22 NPAT growth estimated at 26% YoY (down 35% QoQ)

We expect the stocks comprising the SET to post an aggregate 3Q22 NPAT jump of 26% YoY. For core profit, our model points to a jump of 56% YoY (down 20% QoQ). The sectors most likely to deliver YoY core earnings growth exceeding 40% are Consumer (strong YoY recoveries in store traffic), Industrial Estate (greater land transference), Electronics (heavy demand for cloud storage and data center-related products), Energy (petroleum sales volume expansion, a higher petroleum ASP, and a fatter market GRM), and Automotive (swift car sales growth).