Strategy Note /

Thailand: Thai Market Strategy - SET earnings roundup for 1Q22

  • 1Q22 profit climbed 14% YoY and was 6.0% above consensus

  • Earnings projection upgrades continued, but not yet broad-based

  • Our YE22 SET target of 1705

Poramet Tongbua
Poramet Tongbua

Equity Research Analyst

Bualuang Securities
18 May 2022

The YoY aggregate 1Q22 bottom-line expansion was driven by the economic upturn, higher oil prices, and hefty healthcare demand from a low 1Q21 base. But the sustainability of the earnings recovery is threatened by multiple global headwinds—the Russia-Ukraine war has pushed up commodity prices, while China's zero-COVID policy may damage its trading partners. Conditional on exogenous geopolitical events not disrupting the recovery, we believe that Thailand’s economic comeback will build steam going forward, buttressed by the return of inbound tourism.

1Q22 profit climbed 14% YoY and was 6.0% above consensus

The aggregate 1Q22 NPAT of the stocks comprising the SET rose by 14% YoY and 10% QoQ. The YoY expansion was underpinned by recovering business activity following easing of COVID-related restrictions, strong healthcare demand tied to COVID-19, and sharply higher oil and petrochemical prices. The QoQ increase was led by inventory gains amid surges in the prices of energy products and commodities.