Strategy Note /

Thailand: Thai Market Strategy - SET earnings roundup for 3Q21

  • 3Q21 profit jumped 64% YoY, but was 8.3% below consensus

  • Earnings misses may limit 2021 profit forecast upgrade flows

  • Earnings were 8.3% below the consensus (BLS coverage)

Poramet Tongbua
Poramet Tongbua

Equity Research Analyst

Bualuang Securities
16 November 2021

The YoY increase in the 3Q21 aggregate bottom-line was driven largely by commodity sectors; domestic sectors were impacted by lockdown measures following a blowout in COVID-19 infections. Those domestic sectors are likely to see QoQ rebounds in 4Q21, enabling aggregate 4Q21 net profit to post YoY and QoQ double-digit growth. We expect further progress in vaccinating Thailand’s population against COVID-19 and the (near) normalization of business to keep investors fairly upbeat over the scope for further bourse upside into next year.

Our YE22 SET target of 1793 implies a PER of 18.3x (1SD above the market’s 10-year mean) and EPS of 98.

3Q21 profit jumped 64% YoY,  but was 8.3% below consensus

The stocks comprising the SET reported an aggregate 3Q21 NPAT increase of 64% YoY (up 20% YoY ex-THAI) but a slide of 14% QoQ (down 28% QoQ ex-THAI). The QoQ decline was mostly due to the Jul-Aug hard lockdowns imposed in many provinces, prompted by a blowout in COVID-19 infections. Only a few sectors reported strong QoQ profit growth—chiefly Healthcare (higher revenues, largely from COVID-related services), Industrial Materials (higher prices), and Media (MAJOR’s divestment gain).