Strategy Note /

Thailand: Thai Market Strategy - Scanning for interim dividend plays

  • Moderate dividend yield gap of 1.4% (versus TH3Y yield of 1.95%)

  • Shortlisted dividend plays

  • 62% of firms under coverage may pay interim dividends

Poramet Tongbua
Poramet Tongbua

Equity Research Analyst

Bualuang Securities
19 July 2022

During the next four weeks, SET-listed firms will announce 2Q22 results; many will also announce dividends for 1H22. In the columns on the right side of this page, we have compiled two lists of the top-25 yields that we expect from: 1) interim dividends that we anticipate will be paid for 1H22 and 2) assumed full-year 2022 dividends. The details of expected dividends for 1H22 and 2022 are shown in Figures 1 and 2 on the pages below.

Moderate dividend yield gap of 1.4% (versus TH3Y yield of 1.95%)

Despite the sharp rise in the Thai govt three-year bond (TH3Y) yield since the start of the year, the gap between the mean SET dividend yield (3.4% is expected for 2022) and the TH3Y (currently 1.95%) sits at a moderate level of 1.4%, slightly above the long-term mean of 1.3% (it has ranged -0.1-3.1% during the past 10 years and averaged 1.3%). Given that inflation looks to be close to peaking and US Federal Reserve hawkishness is probably at its most acute right now, the scope for further upside to US bond yields and the TH3Y appears limited, so we expect the dividend yield gap to keep clear of expensive space (a yield gap of less than 1%) for some time.