Strategy Note /

Thailand: Thai Market Strategy - 4Q21 earnings preview: Strong YoY and QoQ jump!

  • 4Q21 SET bottom-line to mark a jump of 45% YoY & 38% QoQ

  • For 1Q22, expect YoY rises of 5% in SET NPAT, 29% in core profit

  • Earnings revisions stalled in January

Poramet Tongbua
Poramet Tongbua

Equity Research Analyst

Bualuang Securities
17 January 2022

4Q21 earnings will mark a QoQ bounce, led by reopening after a hard lockdown, Jul-Aug 2021. Assuming no further hard lock-downs tied to Omicron or future variants, moderate YoY core earnings growth can be expected for 1Q22. Beneficiaries of the macro-economic recovery—especially stocks with undemanding valuations and/or lagging price performances (particularly compared to pre-COVID levels)—remain our focus for potential outperformance in the months ahead.

4Q21 SET bottom-line to mark a jump of 45% YoY & 38% QoQ

We expect the stocks that comprise the SET to post an aggregate 4Q21 net profit jump of 45% YoY. For core earnings, we estimate a surge of 54% YoY and 18% QoQ. The sectors most likely to post YoY core profit growth exceeding 30% are Energy (higher crude prices and a fatter GRM; GULF’s strong YoY earnings jump), Chemical (greater sales volumes and fatter product spreads for some products), Shipping (the Baltic Dry Index rose 157% YoY), Healthcare (COVID-related services), Bank (lighter LLPs), Construction Service (CK’s bottom-line turnaround last year).