Strategy Note /

Thailand: Thai Market Strategy - 3Q22 earnings wrap & 4Q22 outlook

  • 3Q22 net profit rose 18% YoY

  • 4Q22 NPAT to climb 14% YoY; core profit to jump 25% YoY

  • Disappointing 3Q22 results prompt forecast-downsizing

Poramet Tongbua
Poramet Tongbua

Equity Research Analyst

Bualuang Securities
21 November 2022

Following a fair YoY increase in aggregate 3Q22 net profit, decent YoY core earnings growth should continue in 4Q22, supported by the ongoing normal-ization of domestic business and the return of inbound tourism (global headwinds notwithstanding).

3Q22 net profit rose 18% YoY

Aggregate 3Q22 net earnings (BLS coverage) increased 18% YoY but dived 37% QoQ. Core profit rose 66% YoY but slid 17% QoQ. The key sectors that marked notable YoY growth were Consumer (strong YoY recoveries in store traffic), Automotive (a recovery in road vehicle output), Energy (higher oil prices, a fatter GRM), Electronics (strong demand for cloud storage and data center-related products), Industrial Estate (greater land transference), and Residential Property (increased unit transference). Aggregate net profit was 7.9% below our estimate (and missed the consensus by 6.5%). Core earnings were 10% above our expectation.