Strategy Note /

Thailand: Thai Market Strategy - 2Q22 earnings preview

  • SET to post 2Q22 bottom-line growth of 24% YoY and 15% QoQ

  • For 3Q22, expect further strong YoY SET NPAT growth of 83%

  • Street profit forecast upgrades continued in July-to-date

Poramet Tongbua
Poramet Tongbua

Equity Research Analyst

Bualuang Securities
18 July 2022

The release of pent-up demand following the lifting of COVID-related restrictions translates into decent YoY net profit growth for 2Q22 (despite inflation). And so long as price pressures and the global economic slowdown don’t intensify substantially, we expect further YoY core profit growth for 3Q22. Beneficiaries of the macro-economic recovery with clear earnings visibility are our focus in anticipation of stock price outperformances in the months ahead.

SET to post 2Q22 bottom-line growth of 24% YoY and 15% QoQ

We expect the stocks comprising the SET to mark an aggregate 2Q22 NPAT increase of 24% YoY. For core profit, we estimate a jump of 54% YoY and 25% QoQ. The sectors most likely to deliver YoY core earnings growth exceeding 40% are Media (higher ad revenue and a low 2Q21 base), Energy (greater petroleum sales volume and a higher petroleum ASP), Shipping (a higher container freight rate), Healthcare (strong domestic demand growth and a recovery in fly-in business), Industrial Estate (greater land transference), and Consumer (robust same-store sales growth).