We expect the ResProp sector to rally on proof of recovery. The executives of the nine stocks under our coverage are optimistic over the prospects for 4Q21 and 2022. The 2022 mean ResProp coverage PER should rise further from 10.5x currently (near its long-term average). At the moment, we like LH (sector bellwether), PSH (4Q21 profit recovery play), and LPN (2022 profit recovery play), while AP and SC are the best ResProp dividend plays.
Exciting 4Q21 outlook—PSH is growth leader
Managers of all nine of the ResProp stocks under coverage are bullish over the 4Q21 outlook, which is shaping up to be the best quarter of 2021. Launch value is estimated at Bt50-54bn (69% condo, 31% low-rise) in 4Q21, up by 11% YoY and 77% QoQ. Aggregate presales are preliminarily assumed at Bt52bn, up by 33% YoY and 19% QoQ, led by AP, PSH, and SPALI. We forecast aggregate coverage core earnings of Bt8.1bn, up by 9% YoY and 46% QoQ. PSH should mark the strongest YoY and QoQ profit growth, followed by SPALI. LPN will post a QoQ revenue recovery. LH and QH will report higher top-lines and greater profit-sharing (particularly from HMPRO).