Equity Analysis /

Thailand: Residential Property - Unit launches rose MoM in Oct, but value dived

  • MoM rise in unit launches, led by low-end condo starts

  • Take-up rate up slightly in Oct; sharply higher rate for condo

  • More scheduled for 4Q22, expected heaviest in November

Bualuang Securities
16 November 2022

The AREA survey for Oct 2022 indicated MoM rises in unit launches and take-up rates. Project starts should rise MoM in Nov. We suggest accumulating SIRI (ahead of an exciting outlook before its Nov 18 analyst meeting) and SC (three condos to start transferring).

MoM rise in unit launches, led by low-end condo starts

AREA reported launches of 11,060 units in Oct 2022, up 29% MoM, led by the condo category. But total project launch value was Bt49bn, down 27% MoM, due to a bigger proportion of low-end condo starts. SDH launches totaled 2,131 units, down 49% MoM, with far more units priced between Bt5-10m/unit. SPALI, SC, SIRI, and LPN started SDH projects in Sep, while SPALI unveiled a new high-end SDH estate in Oct, Supalai Grand Essence @Tha Phra Interchange (18 units with prices ranging Bt22m/unit). TH starts were 3,548 units, up 24% MoM—SPALI, LPN, and SIRI launched mid-range TH projects in Oct. Condo starts totaled 5,306 units, up 254% MoM (from a very low Sep number), concentrated in the low-end to mid-range (Bt1-3m/unit). The proportion of launches by listed players increased from 82% in Sep to 88% in Oct 2022.