The AREA survey for Sep 2022 indicated MoM declines in unit launches and take-up rates. Project starts should rise MoM in Oct. We suggest accumulating SIRI (ahead of proof of a 3Q22 profit surge and for its strong out-look) and SC (exciting 4Q22 prospects).
MoM decline in unit launches, but strong high-end growth
AREA reported launches of 8,549 units in Sep 2022, down 11% MoM, led south by the condo category. However total project launch value was Bt66bn, up 54% MoM, driven by high-end SDH starts. SDH launches totaled 4,177 units, up 46% MoM, with substantially more units priced above Bt20m. AP, LH, and QH started SDH projects in Sep, while LH unveiled a new high-end SDH estate in Sep, Nantawan Rama9-New Krungthep Kritha (136 units with prices ranging Bt38m/unit, 35% booked). TH starts were 2,860 units, up 33% MoM—AP, LH, PSH, and SPALI launched mid-range TH projects in Sep. Condo starts totaled 1,500 units in Sep (the lowest number since Jan 2022), down 67% MoM, concen-trated in the low-end to mid-range (Bt1-3m/unit). The proportion of launches by listed developers rose from 71% in Aug to 92% in Sep 2022.