Equity Analysis /

Thailand: Residential Property - ResProp sector in 2H22

  • 1H22 was just the beginning for the ResProp sector

  • Better take-up rates in 2H22

  • Light at the end of the tunnel—high-end buyers ready for 2H22

Bualuang Securities
1 August 2022

The AREA survey for 1H22 indicates the highest industry-wide unit launches and overall take-up rate since 2019. And the outlook is a lot better than the recent past. Our mean coverage 2022 PER is only 8.8x, 1SD below its long-term mean. LH is our top pick (sector bellwether and an exciting 2H22 profit recovery profile). For the upcoming 1H22 dividend payout season, LH and SPALI should pay the highest interim yields of 2.9% and 2.6%, respectively.

1H22 was just the beginning for the ResProp sector

AREA reported new launches of 52,964 units for 1H22, up 103% YoY (launch value was Bt194bn, up 38% YoY)—the most unit starts since COVID hit in 2020. The steepest rise in launches was in the condo category. SDH starts totaled 8,677 units, up 58% YoY, with increases across all price segments. TH launches totaled 12,397 units, up 23% YoY, with rises across all segments. Condo starts marked a two-year-high of 31,621 units, up 208% YoY (with a jump in the low-end segment, but a YoY fall in the high-end). SET-listed firms launched 71% of new projects in 1H22, down slightly from 74% of projects in 2021.