For April, the Agency for Real Estate Affairs (AREA) reported MoM slumps in launches and mean take-up rate for low-rise categories, but modest rises for condo. We expect starts to increase MoM in May. The 2H22 launch plan looks set to be pared back, as costs are rising faster than demand. We suggest selective positions in LH (2Q22 earnings leadership, a good DPS for 1H22) and SIRI (profit bottomed out in 1Q22).
Unit launches fell MoM, led south by low-rise, as expected
AREA reported launches during Apr of 5,361 units, down 26% MoM, led south by low-rise starts. Launch value was Bt23bn, down 35% MoM. SDH launches totaled 902 units, down 44% MoM, concentrated in the high-end segment (above Bt20m/unit). TH launches were 1,632 units, down 44% MoM. Condo starts were 2,827 units, up 9% MoM (but condo launch value dived 21% MoM, as new projects were concen-trated in the low-end). The proportion of launches by listed developers rose from 58% in Mar to 76% in Apr 2022. Among our coverage, PSH and SC launched low-rise estates; LPN was the only ResProp developer under coverage to start a new condo in Apr.