Equity Analysis /

Thailand: Residential Property - Post-results views of managers

  • Exciting 4Q22 outlook—SIRI is growth leader

  • All firms under coverage optimistic over 2023 (SIRI most bullish)

  • Construction costs remain high, but high-end sales are strong

Bualuang Securities
22 November 2022

We expect the ResProp sector to rally on proof of uptrends. The managers of the eight stocks under our coverage are optimistic over the prospects for 2023. We currently like SIRI (high-end leader), SC (condo trans-ference in 4Q22), and LH (profit backloaded to 4Q22).

Exciting 4Q22 outlook—SIRI is growth leader

Half of the managers of the ResProp stocks under coverage are bullish over the 4Q22 outlook, which is shaping up to be the best quarter of 2022. Launch value is estimated at Bt112bn for the period (71% low-rise, 29% condo), up by 160% YoY and 58% QoQ and the highest number of 2022. Aggregate presales are preliminarily assumed at Bt59bn, up 28% YoY (flattish QoQ), led by AP, LPN, and PSH. We forecast 4Q22 aggregate coverage core earnings of Bt8.6bn, up 9% YoY but down 8% QoQ. SIRI should mark the strongest YoY and QoQ profit growth, followed by SC. PSH will see YoY and QoQ revenue growth from low 4Q21 and 3Q22 bases. LH and QH will post higher top lines and profit-sharing, particularly from HMPRO.