Equity Analysis /

Thailand: Residential Property - Nov marked highest monthly launches of 2021

  • Unit launches increased MoM with YTD-high project value

  • Mean take-up rate declined in November

  • Seasonal MoM decline expected for December

Bualuang Securities
16 December 2021

The Agency for Real Estate Affairs (AREA) reported the highest monthly unit launch number of 2021-to-date for Nov (as we had expected), but the take-up rate declined. For Dec, we expect a MoM drop, due to seasonality. We suggest accumulating LH (the ResProp bellwether; lined up for a strong 4Q21 and a 2022 core profit recovery) and LPN (big profit jump in 2022; an exciting new business plan is expected).

Unit launches increased MoM with YTD-high project value

AREA reported launches in Nov of 10,995 units (the highest number of 2021-to-date), up 68% MoM (Bt52bn in value, up 35% MoM), as we had expected. Condo starts jumped 23% MoM to 4,710 units, led by price segments ranging Bt2-5m. TH launches surged 60% MoM to 3,598 units. SDH launches totaled 2,666 units, up 560% MoM, with bigger numbers across all price segments, especially Bt5-10m/unit. The proportion of launches by listed developers increased from 77% in Oct to 88% in Nov. Among our coverage, LH, SPALI, SC, PSH, and SIRI unveiled new SDH estates, while LH and PSH also launched TH projects. Among our coverage, only SIRI started a new condo (Condo ME, 98% booked).