Equity Analysis /

Thailand: Residential Property-Nascent recovery in Aug; momentum to build in Sep

  • MoM project launch growth in August

  • Take-up rates recovered, as expected

  • Greater launch activity expected in September

Bualuang Securities
16 September 2021

The AREA survey for August showed MoM recoveries in launches and take-up rates (despite the lockdown), in line with our expect-ation. Launch and take-up rate growth will build momentum in Sep. ResProp stocks are good to accumulate (and now is good timing to take positions in laggard plays). The unexciting outlook for 3Q21 presales and earnings is already priced in. We expect SPALI and LPN to mark YoY profit growth leadership for 3Q21.

MoM project launch growth in August

AREA reported project launches totaling 3,666 units for August, up 59% MoM (Bt14bn in value terms, up 101% MoM). The recovery was driven by MoM jumps of 399% in SDH starts (to 833 units) and 60% in TH starts (to 1,921 units). Condo launches were flat MoM at 912 units. The proportion of project starts by non-listed firms jumped from 17% in July to 37% in August. Among our ResProp coverage, AP launched a high-end SDH and a mid-range SDH, PSH started a mid-range TH, and LPN unveiled an upper mid-range TH.