The AREA survey for July 2022 indicated that unit launches dived MoM and take-up rates slipped MoM. We expect MoM launch growth for August—3Q22 should be the heaviest quarter for starts in 2022. We suggest accumulating SIRI (a compelling valuation and a strong outlook), LH (a 3Q22 profit surge, fueled by heavy condo transference), and SC (an exciting 4Q22, due to the transfer-ence of three new condos).
MoM dive in launches in July; falls across all categories
AREA reported launches of 6,223 units in July 2022, down 50% MoM from June (12,658 units, Bt12.5bn in value; the highest number since early 2020), with steep falls across all categories. SDH starts totaled 1,513 units (down 43% MoM), concentrated in the mid-range to high-end (Bt5-10m/unit). TH starts were 1,849 units (down 54% MoM)—AP, SC, SIRI, and SPALI launched TH projects in July. Condo starts totaled 2,784 units (down 52% MoM), concentrated in the low-end to mid-range (Bt2-3m/unit)—SIRI and LPN both launched condo projects. The proportion of starts by listed developers dropped from 87% in June to 68% in July. Among our coverage, AP, LH, SC, SIRI, and SPALI started new low-rise estates.