Equity Analysis /

Thailand: Residential Property-Launches dived in July; modest recovery in August

  • Launches slumped in July

  • Very low take-up rate in July

  • Modest launch recovery in August

Bualuang Securities
18 August 2021

The AREA survey reported MoM dives in unit launches and take-up rates for July (as expected). We anticipate modest launch and take-up rate recoveries in August, as work has resumed on construction sites. Our top picks are SPALI (the clearest revenue visibility) and AP (the cheapest PER among our ResProp coverage). We also suggest accumulating PSH (YoY and QoQ earnings growth will resume in 3Q21).

Launches slumped in July

AREA reported launches of 2,311 units in July 2021, down 64% MoM, (Bt7.2bn in value terms, down 75% MoM, a three-year low), with declines across all categories (in July, the govt ordered a temporary halt to work on construction sites). Condo starts totaled 912 units, down 71% MoM (and limited to the Bt1-3m/unit price segment). SDH starts totaled 167 units, down 88% MoM. TH starts were 1,198 units, down 32% MoM (limited to the Bt2-5m/unit segment). The proportion of launches by SET-listed firms rose from 72% in June to 83% in July. Among our coverage, SC launched a high-end TH (shophouse) project, QH started mid-range TH and high-end SDH projects, and PSH unveiled a low-end condo.