Equity Analysis /

Thailand: Residential Property - 3Q22 wrap and beyond

  • Best quarter so far; LPN, QH, and SIRI stood out

  • Strong YoY core profit growth led by hefty condo transference

  • Launch value to more than double YoY in 4Q22, so heavier presales

Bualuang Securities
17 November 2022

3Q22 earnings played out even better than we had anticipated. Looking ahead, we suggest a “Selective BUY” strategy on ResProp stocks expected to mark strong 4Q22 numbers, supported by hefty condo completions and new launches—LH, SC, and SIRI.

Best quarter so far; LPN, QH, and SIRI stood out

The nine residential developers under our coverage posted aggregate core earnings of Bt9.4bn for 3Q22, up by 68% YoY and 18% QoQ. The aggregate core profit was 7% ahead of our estimate and 6% above the consensus. Aggregate residential revenue was Bt53bn, up by 31% and 13%. Residential GM was 33.2% in 3Q22, up 70bps YoY and flat QoQ. 9M22 aggregate core profit represents 74% of our 2022 forecast of Bt32.5bn (and 72% of the street projection), up 25% YoY. LPN, QH, and SIRI posted the strongest YoY and QoQ core earnings growth—LPN’s number was up by 885% YoY and 60% QoQ, QH’s by 143% YoY and 24% QoQ, and SIRI’s by 100% YoY and 45% QoQ.