Equity Analysis /

Thailand: Residential Prop- Strong MoM launch growth in May—More to come in June

  • Strong MoM launch growth in May, as expected

  • Take-up rate recovery in May

  • Heavier launches likely for June, led by low-rise

Phoowadol Phoosodngern
Bualuang Securities
16 June 2022

The AREA survey for May 2022 showed both substantial MoM launch growth (the highest for 2022-to-date) and a higher MoM take-up rate. We expect the positive momentum to continue. Our NEUTRAL call stands on the Residential Property sector. We recommend accumulating AP in anticipation of strong 2H22 core profit growth and LH for 3Q22 bottom-line expansion.

Strong MoM launch growth in May, as expected

AREA reported launches of 10,640 units in May 2022, up 98% MoM, (valued at Bt42.4bn, up 89% MoM), driven by condo projects. Condo starts totaled 6,705 units, up 137% MoM, concentrated in the low-end segment (below Bt2m/unit). SDH starts totaled 1,548 units, up 72% MoM. TH starts were 2,273 units, up 39% MoM—SIRI launched a new luxury TH, Demi Sathu 49 (an average price of Bt22.8m/unit). The proportion of launches by listed developers rose from 76% in Apr to 81% in May 2022. Among our coverage, LH, PSH, SC, SIRI, and QH started new low-rise estates. SC and SPALI launched new mid-range condo projects.