For 1Q22, we expect the three media operators—BEC, PLANB, and MAJOR—to report strong YoY profit growth (but down QoQ, due to the advent of Omicron variant and seasonality). Looking to 2Q22, MAJOR should rebound faster than other categories (heavy flows of Hollywood blockbusters). For TV, we believe its recovery should start in Jun. Our play on the 2Q22 recovery theme is MAJOR.
1Q22—Omicron affected overall ad spending
Total 1Q22 ad spending was Bt23bn, down 1% YoY and 7% QoQ, according to Nielsen. A willingness to spend during the Omicron spread is proving low. Only four media categories reported YoY ad revenue rises—cinema (up 44% YoY), outdoor (up 11% YoY), in-store (up 16% YoY) and transit (up 1% YoY). Ad spending on cinema and out-of-home (OOH) recovered from their low bases as they were the hardest hit by the COVID-19 during 2020-21. Other mediums reported ad spending declines—TV (down 4% YoY), cable/satellite (down 34% YoY), radio (down 3% YoY), and newspapers (down 15% YoY).