Equity Analysis /

Thailand: Media - Await recovery, BUY later

  • Ad spending was flattish MoM in May against seasonality

  • Significant recovery expected in 4Q22

  • ADVANC’s acquisition of 3BB—threat or opportunity for MONO

Napon Jaisan
Napon Jaisan

Equity Research Analyst

Bualuang Securities
8 July 2022

In this business environment, media stocks should face pressure as the market inclines towards more cautious ad spending. Almost all TV operators remain in a defensive mode. It’s better to wait for clear signs of ad revenue recovery.  Out-of-home and cinema players should recover first from their low bases as they were hardest hit by COVID-19.  MAJOR seems the best play for now.

Ad spending was flattish MoM in May against seasonality

Total ad spending in Apr was Bt8.48bn, up 3% YoY but down 3% MoM. Seven media categories reported YoY ad expenditure rises—cinema, transit, TV, radio, newspaper, outdoor and in-store. Total ad spending in May rose 11% YoY (from the low base set related to COVID-19 last year) but flattish MoM. Ad expenditure in May should rise MoM, due to seasonality and COVID-19 easing. However, ad dispensers hesitated to increase their budgets amid the economic uncertainty. Eyeball counts for OOH media rebounded in Apr-May. BTSGIF posted ridership on the BTS skytrain of 10.4m trips (or 335k/day) for May, up 31% YoY and 148% MoM. BEM reported mean ridership/day on the MRT of 230k trips in May up 156% YoY and 29% MoM. On expressways, average traffic volume/day jumped 56% YoY and 7% MoM to 1,040k trips.