Equity Analysis /
Thailand

Thailand: Healthcare - It’s just a flu! COVID game changes

  • It’s just a flu! COVID-19 soon to be declared “endemic”

  • Weak 2Q22 aggregate coverage profit expected

  • BH the best Healthcare sector play for 2H22 and 2023

Phoowadol Phoosodngern
Bualuang Securities
24 May 2022

Amid the relentless news flows about COVID-19, investors are looking for roadmaps to navigate the post-COVID era. Within the Healthcare sector, we suggest loading BH—weak 2Q22 numbers will be followed by a strong recovery, 2H22 through 2023. We have HOLD calls on BCH and CHG, as their respective 2Q22 and 2022 outlooks are poor. If their stock prices were to rally on proof of strong 2Q22 results, profit-taking would be in order.

It’s just a flu! COVID-19 soon to be declared “endemic”

Omicron is on the way out in Thailand. Severe COVID-19 cases and deaths are declining. The number of confirmed new daily infections was 4,099 on May 23, down 86% from a peak of 28k cases on Apr 1. This situation matches with one definition of an endemic disease (no more than 10k daily new infections). On May 18 the Public Health Ministry’s Permanent Secretary, Mr Kiatiphum Wongrajit, announced that Thailand now plans to declare the disease “endemic” more than two weeks earlier than first planned (from July 1 to mid-Jun), as the infection rate has fallen so sharply. The govt is also likely to pare back its COVID-related healthcare payment regime for private hospitals to be in line with the regime for endemic diseases.