The executives of BH, BCH, and CHG that we spoke with express-ed optimism over their respective firms’ prospects for 1Q22 and 2022. BH will be the Healthcare profit growth leader. And we expect mid-range hospitals to see substantial further COVID-related revenue through 1H22. Currently, we prefer BCH and suggest taking profits on BDMS (an unexciting 1H22 outlook).
Based on our conversations with the managers of the Healthcare firms under coverage, for 1Q22, we expect strong YoY aggregate core profit growth (but QoQ dives for BDMS, BCH, and CHG from their high 4Q21 numbers). The drivers are operational revenue growth (non-COVID patients will be major income drivers this year) and core margin expansion (high-intensity elective cases). BH looks set to be the YoY earnings growth leader for the quarter, due to the release of pent-up demand among fly-in patients. We also expect BCH and CHG to mark substantial YoY revenue and profit growth for 1Q22. In contrast BDMS anticipates more subdued 1H22 numbers, as it doesn’t expect much of an increase in fly-in business till 2H22.