Equity Analysis /

Thailand: Healthcare- 3Q22 playbook:Slumps for CHG and BCH; growth for BDMS & BH

  • Post-COVID effects—bad for CHG & BCH; good for BDMS & BH

  • 2022 and 2023 profiles and calls

  • BDMS: up from HOLD to BUY

Bualuang Securities
28 October 2022

Our Healthcare coverage will mark a deep YoY and QoQ profit dive for 3Q22, due to a slump in COVID-related income. But we expect BDMS to post YoY and QoQ earnings growth and BH to report a YoY jump (flat QoQ. BCH will mark a core loss (expired vaccine inventories).

Post-COVID effects—bad for CHG & BCH; good for BDMS & BH

We estimate our Healthcare coverage’s 3Q22 core profit at Bt4.1bn, down by 42% YoY and 31% QoQ, led south by lower healthcare revenue (Bt33bn, down by 6% YoY and 6% QoQ), a slimmer core margin (15.5%, down by 4.8% YoY and 1.5% QoQ), and a loss for BCH (a provision for expired vaccines). BDMS will outperform with earnings of Bt3.1bn, we estimate, up by 32% YoY and 16% QoQ and its best quarter since 1Q22. BH should mark core earnings of Bt1.2bn, up 297% YoY (flattish QoQ, as lower revenue intensity will roughly offset the effect of a higher effective room rate). We expect a core profit of Bt484m for CHG (down by 69% YoY and 45% QoQ). BCH should post a 3Q22 core loss of Bt648m, as it will book a Bt1.3bn provision for its inventory of expired Moderna COVID-19 vaccines.