Equity Analysis /

Thailand: Healthcare - 2Q22 earnings playbook: Navigating through the headwinds

  • Soft earnings outlook for 2Q22E—except for BH!

  • More headwinds than tailwinds for mid-segment hospitals

  • Scope for upside to the forecasts of ourselves and street

Bualuang Securities
19 July 2022

We expect the Healthcare sector to mark a deep QoQ dive for 2Q22, due to a slump in COVID-related income. BH will mark earnings growth leadership among our coverage (up YoY and QoQ). BDMS and BCH will both post strong YoY growth but deep QoQ dives. CHG’s profit is expected to be flattish YoY but down sharply QoQ. Looking forward, BCH and CHG will be squeezed by the new (tighter) govt COVID payment regime that started in July.

Soft earnings outlook for 2Q22E—except for BH!

Our aggregate 2Q22 Healthcare coverage core profit estimate is Bt5.0bn, up 47% YoY (but down 34% QoQ), led by healthcare revenue (Bt34bn, up 27% YoY but down 11% QoQ) and core margin (14.8%, up 2.1% YoY but down 5.2% QoQ). BH will outperform with earnings of Bt762m, we estimate, up by 260% YoY and 5% QoQ and its best quarter since 1Q20. BDMS should mark a core profit of Bt2.4bn, up 64% YoY but down 31% QoQ. We also expect core earnings of Bt1.2bn for BCH (up 9% YoY but down 39% QoQ, due to a dive in COVID-related revenue) and Bt600m for CHG (up 4% YoY but down 56%).