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Thailand: Energy - Outperforming 4Q22 GRM expected for Thai refiners

  • Seasonally high demand amid tight supply to boost 4Q22 GRM

  • Lower crude premiums to also bolster fatter GRM in 4Q22

  • Fatter effective GRMs expected for Thai refiners in 4Q22

Suppata Srisuk
Suppata Srisuk

Equity Research Analyst

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Bualuang Securities
23 November 2022

Thai refiners stand out to deliver outperforming effective GRMs against Singapore benchmark in 4Q22. TOP is our preferred pick with trading opportunities for Thai refining names (BCP, ESSO, IRPC, SPRC).

Seasonally high demand amid tight supply to boost 4Q22 GRM 

Demand for diesel and high-sulphur fuel oil is set to rise QoQ in 4Q22, boosted by high seasonal demand (winter season) and gas-to-oil switching demand (due to high gas prices). Moreover, the global jet fuel demand is also projected to increase QoQ during the same period in tandem with the easing of travel restrictions across many jurisdictions. In contrast, the global gasoline demand will tend to soften QoQ in 4Q22, as the US summer driving season has ended.