Equity Analysis /
Thailand

Thailand: Commerce - Same-store sales check—further SSSG expected for Oct

  • Tourist arrivals, start of dry season, and school break add to sales

  • Foreign tourists look to be the driver

  • More non-seasonal positive factors make for strong 4Q22 outlook

Bualuang Securities
7 November 2022

Strong foreign tourist arrival growth, the start of the dry season, and a school break will enable most retailers to mark SSSG for Oct. And the positive seasonal and non-seasonal factors in play should make 4Q22 a strong quarter for retailers.

Tourist arrivals, start of dry season, and school break add to sales

Despite the relatively high Oct 2021 base, we expect several retailers to mark SSSG for Oct 2022, supported by strong tourist arrivals, the start of the dry season, and a school break. Among the retailers under coverage, CPALL looks set to post the swiftest Oct SSSG (mid- to high-teens), followed by CRC (mid-teens). Heavy store traffic, especially at popular tourist spots, fueled SSSG. In contrast, we assume Oct SSS declines for DOHOME (down by 11-13%, due to heavy rains and flooding in the first week of Oct) and BIGC (lower B2B sales; excluding B2B sales, BIGC would mark SSSG for Oct, we believe). The Oct same-store sales of HMPRO and Lotus’s look set to be marked flattish (Figure 1).