The govt is gradually easing the lockdown. Most transport plays (except the parcel delivery biz) should gradually recover and we expect their numbers to normalize by mid-2022. Road & rail plays look set to bounce back fast, followed by airlines. BEM is now our top Transport pick. We also see trading opportunities for shipping stocks. Note that we have rolled over our investment horizon from YE21 to YE22.
The era of hard lockdowns has probably ended
Almost half of Thailand’s population (and most of Bangkok) has now had at least one vaccine shot and the rollout is accelerating. Hence, the govt should gradually ease COVID-19 restrictions. With a high and rising vaccination rate, so sharply lower risk of infection spread (and of hospitalization in the event of infection), propagating economic recovery will take precedence over public health. We don’t expect another hard lockdown. Substantially more international flights will start operating during 1H22 and by mid-2022 all transport activity should have resumed levels near to the pre-COVID era.