Equity Analysis /

Thailand (Bualuang): Transportation - Omicron—an endemic signal?

  • The planet to get fully vaccinated

  • From pandemic to endemic?

  • Intra-city transportation is recovering

Bualuang Securities
21 December 2021

Once populations are fully vaccinated, they will live almost norm-ally (still wearing masks). So long as the Omicron variant doesn’t cause high hospitalization rates among vaccinated people, the implication will be that it’s endemic, but not particularly danger-ous. The Transport sector should normalize by YE22. We expect road & rail to recover first, followed by aviation. BEM and AAV are our top picks.

The planet to get fully vaccinated

More than half of the world’s population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and should soon receive second jabs. Most of Thailand’s population is fully vaccinated and will get booster shots in 1H22. Many countries are easing their lockdowns and travel restrictions. Some have lifted all COVID-related travel restrictions. And by mid-2022, we expect several countries (including Thailand) to lift all COVID-related travel restrictions. The emergence of the Omicron variant at first sight appears to present a risk or barrier to normalization. But it may actually mark the point where COVID-19 becomes regarded as endemic, but not particularly dangerous.