1Q22 earnings will see modest YoY growth, led by higher oil prices and stronger business activity in tandem with the easing of COVID-related restrictions. Assuming that post-Songkran COVID-19 hospitalizations don’t blow out and the Russia-Ukraine war doesn’t spread, further YoY core profit growth can be expected for 2Q22. Beneficiaries of the macro-economic recovery—especially stocks with undemanding valuations and/or lagging price perform-ances (particularly compared to pre-COVID levels)—remain our focus for potential outperformance in the months ahead.
1Q22 SET bottom-line to mark growth of 6% YoY and 1% QoQ
We expect the stocks comprising the SET to post an aggregate 1Q22 net profit increase of 6% YoY. For core earnings, we estimate a surge of 26% YoY and 11% QoQ. The sectors most likely to mark YoY core profit growth exceeding 30% are Healthcare (COVID-related services and greater hospitalization with a new wave of COVID-19 infections), Energy (higher crude prices and a fatter GRM; GULF’s new capacity and a contribution from INTUCH), Shipping (higher container freight rates and Baltic Dry Index), Electronics (higher demand, new capacity additions, and a weaker baht against the dollar), Construction Service (higher revenue recognition and fatter margins).