Strategy Note /

Thailand (Bualuang): Thai Market Strategy - 1Q22 earnings preview

  • 1Q22 SET bottom-line to mark growth of 6% YoY and 1% QoQ

  • For 2Q22, expect a flat YoY SET NPAT, core profit up 9% YoY

  • Earnings forecast revisions shifted to an uptrend in Mar-Apr

Poramet Tongbua
Poramet Tongbua

Equity Research Analyst

Bualuang Securities
12 April 2022

1Q22 earnings will see modest YoY growth, led by higher oil prices and stronger business activity in tandem with the easing of COVID-related restrictions. Assuming that post-Songkran COVID-19 hospitalizations don’t blow out and the Russia-Ukraine war doesn’t spread, further YoY core profit growth can be expected for 2Q22. Beneficiaries of the macro-economic recovery—especially stocks with undemanding valuations and/or lagging price perform-ances (particularly compared to pre-COVID levels)—remain our focus for potential outperformance in the months ahead.

1Q22 SET bottom-line to mark growth of 6% YoY and 1% QoQ

We expect the stocks comprising the SET to post an aggregate 1Q22 net profit increase of 6% YoY. For core earnings, we estimate a surge of 26% YoY and 11% QoQ. The sectors most likely to mark YoY core profit growth exceeding 30% are Healthcare (COVID-related services and greater hospitalization with a new wave of COVID-19 infections), Energy (higher crude prices and a fatter GRM; GULF’s new capacity and a contribution from INTUCH), Shipping (higher container freight rates and Baltic Dry Index), Electronics (higher demand, new capacity additions, and a weaker baht against the dollar), Construction Service (higher revenue recognition and fatter margins).